EP31 · Economy · first published 2020-08-12
The stealth federalization of the EU | Tuomas Malinen | Negotiator 31
An English-language episode in which Tuomas Malinen lays out the mechanics of the recovery fund for an international audience: a 750-billion package split into grants and loans, allocated on GDP per capita and 2015–2019 unemployment — variables with no connection to the pandemic. He also presents GnS Economics' synthetic markka simulation, which suggests the Finnish economy would have come through the 2008 crisis substantially better with its own currency.
The stealth federalization of the EU | Tuomas Malinen | Negotiator 31
Summary: An English-language episode in which Tuomas Malinen lays out the mechanics of the recovery fund for an international audience: a 750-billion package split into grants and loans, allocated on GDP per capita and 2015–2019 unemployment — variables with no connection to the pandemic. He also presents GnS Economics’ synthetic markka simulation, which suggests the Finnish economy would have come through the 2008 crisis substantially better with its own currency.
Key Themes
- Introduction: Tuomas Malinen and GnS Economics: Discussed from 00:00 onward.
- 750 billion: grants, loans and Article 310: Discussed from 01:40 onward.
- Who pays and who receives — net contributors in the euro area: Discussed from 03:20 onward.
- The criteria were chosen to fit the outcome: Discussed from 05:00 onward.
- GDP per capita and the euro’s role in the divergence: Discussed from 06:40 onward.
- Finland’s long decline in investment and industry: Discussed from 08:20 onward.
- Joint debt lands in member-state budgets for the first time: Discussed from 10:00 onward.
- The synthetic markka: how the simulation was built: Discussed from 11:40 onward.
- The result: roughly 40% higher investment with an own currency: Discussed from 13:20 onward.
- From 2010 to now: the debt crisis as a continuum: Discussed from 15:00 onward.
- Federation was never agreed — what should happen next: Discussed from 16:40 onward.