EP18 · Economy · first published 2020-05-06
Corona Black Swan 2 | Tuomas Malinen | Neuvottelija 18
Tuomas Malinen of GnS Economics and Sami Miettinen continue their analysis of the pandemic economy and clarify why its economic impact meets the criteria of a black swan. The episode identifies the two conditions required for hyperinflation, the role of central bank financing of governments, and how the interbank market can force rates up despite central bank policy. The discussion covers ECB conduct, the German constitutional court ruling on PSPP, the zombification of the banking sector, and security of supply and food as national questions. It closes on the lag before the real economy is hit, the changing role of the Fed, and creative destruction visible in M&A.
Corona Black Swan 2 | Tuomas Malinen | Neuvottelija 18
Summary: Tuomas Malinen of GnS Economics and Sami Miettinen continue their analysis of the pandemic economy and clarify why its economic impact meets the criteria of a black swan. The episode identifies the two conditions required for hyperinflation, the role of central bank financing of governments, and how the interbank market can force rates up despite central bank policy. The discussion covers ECB conduct, the German constitutional court ruling on PSPP, the zombification of the banking sector, and security of supply and food as national questions. It closes on the lag before the real economy is hit, the changing role of the Fed, and creative destruction visible in M&A.
Key Themes
- The two conditions for hyperinflation: Discussed from 00:00 onward.
- Pandemic and its economic impact as a black swan: Discussed from 03:00 onward.
- Production capacity and the mechanics of recovery: Discussed from 06:00 onward.
- The interbank market and forced rate rises: Discussed from 09:00 onward.
- ECB mistakes and mutualised debt: Discussed from 12:00 onward.
- The German constitutional court and monetary financing: Discussed from 15:00 onward.
- Zombie banks and hidden balance sheets: Discussed from 18:00 onward.
- Security of supply and food as a national question: Discussed from 21:00 onward.
- The disconnect between markets and the real economy: Discussed from 24:00 onward.
- The role of the Fed and taxpayer liability: Discussed from 27:00 onward.
- Creative destruction and demand spikes in M&A: Discussed from 30:00 onward.
- The five phases of the crisis and the real economy hit: Discussed from 31:30 onward.