EP142 · Society · first published 2022-06-19
Principles for a New World Order | Antero Vartia | Negotiator 142
Antero Vartia returns to Neuvottelija two years after the first conversation, and the subject is the same as it was then: principle. The episode covers why flexibility can itself be a principle and staying in the truth its bedrock, what Ray Dalio's three cycles say about a changing world order, and what the book did not live to see of the war in Ukraine and China's Covid policy. It also runs through the link between the inflation spiral and populism, Acemoglu and Robinson's narrow corridor, the two classic market failures, and Compensate's three-and-a-half-year money-collection-law process, during which the company was effectively barred from trading without the matter ever reaching a district court. It closes on meditation, ego, and why executives practise it quietly.
Principles for a New World Order | Antero Vartia | Negotiator 142
Summary: Antero Vartia returns to Neuvottelija two years after the first conversation, and the subject is the same as it was then: principle. The first time round Vartia had just founded Compensate, and the conversation was recorded for Miettinen’s book Uusi neuvotteluvalta, in which principle is one of the negotiator’s four levers.
This time the conversation runs on three levels at once. Personally, it asks what separates a principle from a guideline for living, and what meditation reveals about the ego. Structurally, it works through Ray Dalio’s three cycles and what the book did not live to see of the war in Ukraine and China’s Covid policy. And concretely, it unpacks Compensate’s three-and-a-half-year money-collection-law process, during which the company was effectively barred from trading — and which never once reached a district court.
This episode continues a conversation that began in Carbon compensation | Elina Kajosaari | Negotiator 56, where Compensate’s CEO explains how the quality of carbon sequestration is verified and what the legal ambiguity actually consists of. Here the same matter is seen from the founder’s side, and after the process has ended.
Disclosure. Miettinen says in the episode that he became a paying Compensate customer very early on — and precisely because the activity looked questionable in the authorities’ eyes. Worth keeping in mind when reading the sections on the legal process.
Do you have principles?
The conversation opens with Miettinen’s question, and Vartia’s answer takes the question apart before answering it. Everyone has principles, but what matters is how a principle is defined. For Vartia this is closer to a guideline for living than a fixed rule — and he offers as an example a principle that eats itself: flexibility.
If flexibility is a principle, then you must also accept that a principle you have previously held to may, once you have learned more about life, no longer be the one that carries you forward.
Miettinen notes that excess robs the concept of its foundation, and quotes Groucho Marx: these are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others. You cannot be too flexible.
Vartia does hold one principle, and it is the bedrock the others rest on: the attempt to stay in the truth. In practice that means not manipulating reality or shaping it to suit what would feel pleasant, but trying to understand things as they are.
Miettinen’s own definition comes from his book. Principle is a value with an algorithm in it — rather like computer code:
If you have values but you never manifest them in this physical world, then it is not a principle, it is loose talk.
This is the sharpest single distinction in the episode, and it is worth reading twice. A value never enacted is not a value but a story about oneself. A principle is the part of a value that shows up as action even when it costs.
Words are symbols, and that is why politics works
A digression that turns out to matter later. Vartia points out that words are purely symbols — like shapes drawn on a wall to which meaning is assigned. The problem is that the meaning I give a shape may differ from the one you give it, and because my own meaning is so vividly present, I assume automatically that yours is the same.
Getting behind that is hard. Semantics is one layer, but beneath it lies a deeper one that usually requires more contact to perceive — and whose nuances can be decisive for the big picture.
Miettinen offers a political example: denialism is a convenient magic word that turns any positive concept into a negative one. Climate denialism, tax denialism — the word inverts the other side’s goal without requiring the claim to be argued.
Neither wants to get stuck on terminology, though. As Miettinen says, there is no point going round in circles over you said principle but you meant value.
Meditation, ego, and what remains
Vartia has been speaking more about meditation lately, and the most personal stretch of the episode starts there.
Miettinen describes a different starting point: he is a friend of the Californian podcast school and listens to every Sam Harris episode, but what matters to him is not sitting in the lotus position — it is perceiving without the ego’s voice, living in the moment through the senses. The California crowd also use psilocybin and other substances for this, but in Miettinen’s view the question is whether you can take the inner voice out of the game, not what kind of input your senses are giving you.
Vartia’s reply widens the concept: that is meditation too. Meditation is far more than sitting in silence. You can practise it in meetings — try to be strongly present and quiet the mind so that while the other person is talking you are not constantly ticking through here is my point and here is my point, but trust that the words will come when your turn arrives.
Miettinen notes that a podcast is a perfect format for this precisely because its default is being unscripted: you react to what the other person said two seconds ago.
In his morning meditation Vartia describes two directions:
- Out of the world. The mind quietens so deeply that at best everything disappears — no experience of the physical world remains, place disappears and time disappears. You know that something is, but you no longer have an identity in that state of being.
- Into the world. You let the feelings be felt without trying to define, reshape or even understand them. The feeling begins to open, and beneath it assumptions surface about how things ought to be — and where they come from.
What matters in both is the same: not letting the mind’s noise and its constant urge to protect take over. The mind tries to control everything we do, but in doing so it also stops us from meeting ourselves.
Miettinen asks a good question in return: is the mind the villain here, a pointless soundtrack spoiling an otherwise good life? His own inner voice in adulthood is fairly benign, and he finds it hard to understand people whose main inner reel is ill-intentioned.
Vartia’s answer has three parts:
- The ego is by no means bad. Bad may not even exist — bad is a relative concept too, and we shape it through our minds.
- The ego is identity, the construct of thought that says this is what I am. It is layered, built up over time, and contains many identities the ego attaches to depending on the situation. The ego’s actual tool is the thinking mind.
- And then the part Vartia stresses he is not arguing to anyone: we are not our mind, but the consciousness behind the mind — a consciousness that experiences, among other things, that mind. If we identify with the mind, we identify more strongly with the ego and with the stories we tell about ourselves, and it becomes hard to detach.
The distinction sharpens at the end: that benign voice may be either the voice of the mind, or — if the mind is quietened — the wise consciousness whose words come from somewhere other than the mind’s activity.
Ray Dalio and the three cycles
The episode’s title comes from a book. Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater and a billionaire — and, as Vartia notes, also a meditative person — was on both men’s reading tables at the time of the previous interview. Now he has written a work on the principles of a new world order.
Vartia’s honest verdict on the book is worth noting: he began the audiobook but never finished it, because it could have been considerably tighter instead of working through history in detail. He took in part of the content from the 45-minute YouTube version.
Miettinen’s summary of the model is threefold:
| Cycle | What it describes |
|---|---|
| The economic cycle | the accumulation and unwinding of debt and wealth |
| The internal order cycle of nation states | inequality, political polarisation, internal stability |
| The world order cycle | who is the dominant power and whose currency is relied on |
When all three go badly at once, the world order changes hands. The dominant state today is the United States, before it Britain and before that the Netherlands — and China is tipped as one builder of the next order.
What interests Vartia most in Dalio’s thinking is that an unusual number of large things are acting at once. The aftermath of Covid; China’s production bottleneck either way (continue suppression and the bottleneck persists; abandon it and the population has not yet been through the illness, so supply problems continue); and on top of it all, inflation that is already high.
What Dalio’s book did not live to see
Here Miettinen offers his own modification, and it is the episode’s most interesting claim about world politics.
The book is six months old and, on Miettinen’s reading, says almost deterministically that the baton has already passed to China and we are merely waiting for it to happen. Two things have happened since, and neither is in it:
- Russia’s war of aggression restored a united Western front. Closing ranks is a large force.
- China’s internal weakness was exposed in its Covid response. If the suppression policy is read primarily as a control mechanism rather than a health measure, it has in Miettinen’s assessment made China’s position more brittle — and Western civilisations therefore have an opening.
Vartia moves the emphasis from one question to another, and this is his central position in the whole episode:
What matters is not so much which is the world’s leading economy in future, but what kind of crisis this will be and how we might come through it with the least possible damage.
The reasoning is structural. We have woven a tangle that nobody knows how to unpick — and because it will unpick itself at some point regardless, the only controllable variable is whether the unwinding is orderly. If it is not, unrest follows, because large numbers of people are genuinely squeezed. And in a larger crisis, the world order changes in any case.
Climate is by definition a world-order phenomenon
Miettinen’s observation is precise: climate does not respect the borders of nation states, so it is not a nation-state-level phenomenon but a world-order one.
Has Putin’s war of aggression changed the state of the world on climate? Vartia’s answer is yes, and it has two parts — remarkably honest about what does not change:
What changed. Ambition has been raised and there is better awareness of how problematic dependence on fossil fuels, and on the states that supply them, actually is. The wind-downs will be far faster than they otherwise would have been.
What did not change. Europe buying less oil from Russia does not necessarily reduce the use of oil in the world at all — only the directions of the flows change. This is the part usually left unsaid in political debate.
What genuinely accelerates is purposeful work: energy produced from renewables, solutions for storage, and energy efficiency. Those will happen faster, guaranteed, because this repellent war began.
Miettinen turns to Germany. The Energiewende is in his assessment a catastrophe of principle on several levels, and its foundation stone is the conflation of nuclear weapons with nuclear energy — both are bad. Now gas and oil dependence is at its limit and there is no real solution at German scale, and the country is on the edge of an outright existential crisis. In Finland the impact was small: oil had already been cut off by Neste, and gas was cut with the NATO application.
Inflation, central banks and the fuel of populism
Vartia’s macro assessment is the most predictive stretch of the episode, and it is worth reading in the knowledge that the episode is from June 2022.
In responding to Covid the central banks made sure the economy did not freeze — and did it more boldly than Vartia believed they would. He regarded it as inevitable that a phase would follow in which inflation is very high, and in which containing it is far more critical than preventing a downturn.
The reason is not economic but political:
If inflation stays high and people’s purchasing power weakens, that if anything is the way to make people angry and put populists in power.
On top come the war, rising energy prices and rising food prices. Vartia thinks it entirely possible — indeed evident — that the inflation spiral is already running: people have to demand more pay to buy what they need, so companies have to raise prices, so people have to ask for more again.
And the shift from negative rates through a zero-rate world to one or two per cent is a large change in how valuations settle in the market — which then feeds back into the economy.
The narrow corridor
Miettinen brings in Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson’s The Narrow Corridor. Its frame is that the progress of Western liberal democracy has for two hundred years run down a very narrow corridor with ruin on either side:
- On one side the despotic state — an Erdoğan-, Orbán- or Trump-style capture of the democratic system into a despotic corner.
- On the other side the mega-state — destruction by the bureaucrats of an ultra-socialist state, which destroys market efficiency.
Miettinen’s picture of the present is that the ship of Western democracy is scraping both walls of the corridor. Veer into totalitarianism and we become an Orwellian totalitarian planet; veer into the mega-state and the efficiency goes.
Vartia’s answer is different in temperament, and it is the position he carries through the episode:
This life is a continual search for balance. Personally I believe everything will turn out well.
He does not claim it will be easy: there is a lot of pain involved, work has to be done continuously, and at times it looks as though we are veering off one way or the other. He also concedes the Orwellian worry is well founded — when surveilling, steering and influencing people is at an entirely different level thanks to technology, despots may get a firmer grip on people than before. He still believes strongly that the world finds solutions and moves in a better direction.
The market economy is the only way out — but not without rules
Here the conversation turns to economics, and both men hold master’s degrees in it.
Miettinen’s question: could Adam Smith’s invisible hand — voluntary transaction between people, working in human networks rather than collectives — still rescue us from the mess the central banks and the totalitarians have built?
Vartia’s answer is direct and has two halves, the second of which is the one usually not heard:
As I see it, it is the only way out. It is the only means of solving things — those voluntary transactions, but within agreed rules of the game.
The mechanism is simple: I do something that benefits you, you do something that benefits me, and we agree it freely of our own will. That is the whole point of activity and efficiency. But the agreeing has to be done so that negative externalities do not arise — and that requires good regulation, which must live in time and see where things are heading.
Vartia corrects here a misunderstanding that he says arises almost every time he speaks in favour of the market economy:
People form the idea that you can do whatever you want. You absolutely cannot do whatever you want.
On environmental questions we need much tighter regulation and more liability for the actors doing harmful things. And that does not stop the market economy from working — new things and new business arise under the new rules.
Two market failures, and a third that is a thinking error
Miettinen frames what falls outside voluntary transactions as two classic cases:
Moral hazard. The financial example: a bank risks customers’ money, takes the upside as bonuses when things go well, and when things go badly society rescues the bank.
The tragedy of the commons. This is the one more relevant to Compensate’s world — and Vartia describes its political form as he saw it as an MP.
Politicians talked about how climate change must be stopped. Then when the discussion moved to what should be done, it was striking how long it took to get past we can’t act, because the others aren’t acting and it isn’t worth it for us, because China isn’t either. The worry was that we spend money and others benefit and gain relative competitive advantage.
The great illusion there is that we do not see how expensive it is not to act.
But according to Vartia the underlying problem is not even the tragedy of the commons, though it brushes against it. It is a thinking error called “somebody else will handle it”:
We have somehow outsourced responsibility to someone else, and we do not even know to whom.
And from that follows the core of Compensate’s whole idea: we ought to recognise responsibility for the harm we ourselves cause. Had responsibility always been recognised, there would be no climate crisis in its present form — the harm would either have been left uncaused or repaired after it arose.
Vartia’s assessment of the rate of change is hopeful and he argues for it: much has happened since the start of his term as an MP in 2015 — by no means enough, but the rate of change is exponential, so the change over the next seven years will be far larger than over the last seven.
Compensate and the Money Collection Act: three and a half years without a court
This is the most concrete and heaviest stretch of the episode, and it follows directly from what Elina Kajosaari described in episode 56 — but seen after the process has ended.
What it was about. The law requires a money collection permit if an actor appeals to the public in order to receive money without consideration. Compensate offers companies a carbon sequestration service so that they can meet their own carbon neutrality targets, which they cannot reach without buying sequestration on the market. The carbon is sequestered physically.
The authority’s interpretation was that the company receives no actual benefit — on the grounds that the benefit also accrues to everybody else.
Vartia’s counter-argument is twofold. First, society contains a great deal of other activity that benefits society more broadly, and applying that logic would make those money collections too. Second, and more simply:
If you do work that does good, and I give you money for it, and you do what you said you would do — that in itself is already the consideration.
Miettinen sums up the absurdity: the debate about at what point a service becomes a service for consideration felt entirely absurd. Vartia does not share Miettinen’s original charge against the left, but locates the root of the thinking elsewhere:
The whole way of thinking traces back to some era of the planned economy, where you have to make concrete things — otherwise it is nothing.
What the process cost. The numbers are the hardest content in the episode:
- 3.5 years from Vartia approaching the authority to ask how one should act in this situation, to the prosecutor dropping the charge.
- 3 years in public during which the company was in practice convicted — nobody dared do business with it, because it was unclear whether it had the right to operate or was effectively barred from trading.
- 0 hearings in a district court. The process ended before it ever got there. Had it gone to court, the district court would have been late in the year at the earliest, then the court of appeal and possibly the supreme court.
It cannot be consistent with the rule of law that proceedings take this long.
What was left. Vartia corrects an easy conclusion here: the law is still in force. Only an exception for emission compensation was added. Many other actors still end up in wholly incomprehensible situations because of the authority’s interpretation, and dare not even ask the authority — because what happened to Compensate might happen to them.
Vartia’s structural demand is clear: it is entirely fine for an authority to disagree, and it is a fact that laws age as the world moves on. The problem is the procedure.
We cannot improve a bad law by driving people into criminal proceedings instead of politicians and legislators doing their job properly.
If a situation is unclear, the authority should contact the ministry and ask for clarification — not resolve it by filing a report of an offence and starting a criminal process. And emission compensation had by then been on offer for 15 years.
Miettinen’s parallel is alcohol legislation: the ministry tries to block a European import worth a few per cent of the whole in order to defend an import monopoly by prosecuting individuals and doing legislative work through them. Society should determine what is right and what is unlawful, and then apply the norm — not make an entrepreneur the test case.
Miettinen’s theory of why the law is like this
Miettinen offers his own explanation, and it points at two structures that are both binary, that is, threshold-shaped:
- The third sector and its tax treatment. In Finland a great deal of money is distributed without consideration — for example through the state betting monopoly’s proceeds — to general-benefit bodies that pursue some mission in foundation form. It can be quite murky: in some cases genuinely good and in some cases plainly political corruption.
- The VAT cliff. In the financial sector, raising capital is VAT-exempt activity, but financing consultancy is a service carrying 24 per cent VAT.
Both are badly designed and black-and-white, and so they cause black-and-white problems for everyone else. An absurd quantity of resources goes into resolving such matters instead of simplifying the legislation so that there is one clear way of doing things.
And exceptions — like the one Compensate eventually got — are well intentioned but shift the problem elsewhere, where it may be larger than the benefit gained.
The international dimension and the long shadow of reputation
Two things worth taking away.
Why the projects are abroad. There are several reasons. First, cost efficiency: it should be done where it is most efficient. Second and more importantly, the double counting problem in Finnish afforestation projects: the Finnish state in practice socialises the benefit, so the customer would be sold a false claim of compensation. That is why it cannot be done here.
What the criminal suspicion cost internationally. Compensate’s market is international, but during the suspicion the company did not dare seek visibility. Had the Financial Times written about it and mentioned the fundraising-offence suspicion, that would have lived on: other journalists dig into the background and write follow-ups, and the story would be there every time.
Vartia’s own analogy is the funniest thing in the episode: when he was elected to parliament, somebody had written that he was a soap star. He had appeared in the Finnish soap Salatut elämät on six days in the year 2000, nobody knew the role and nobody remembers the character — but because the press had printed soap star, he is still introduced at events as an entrepreneur and actor. Miettinen mentions Löyly in the same breath, the Helsinki sauna he likes to take foreign guests to for the icy plunge.
Why executives meditate in silence
The episode ends where it began. Vartia says he opened up about his spiritual side more widely for the first time on a friend’s podcast a few weeks earlier — and got more feedback from it than from anything else he had ever done, and genuinely encouraging feedback.
His reading is that these themes are close to people: many think about spiritual matters, meditation, or the wonder of this life. But the thing is hard to put into words, misunderstanding follows easily — and above all there is the fear of what people will think if it turns out you might be a bit off. So we do not talk about them.
Vartia’s own case for meditation is practical rather than mystical:
The feelings I carry in me, the traumas that affect my behaviour, the fears that limit what I do — meditation is a tool for getting more out of this life. The better I learn to know myself, the better I learn to act in this world.
And the parallel that makes the forecast credible: therapy. A few years ago it would have been embarrassing to say you were in therapy. Today it is one of the finest things Vartia knows — going to realise things about yourself, doing work on yourself, growing. The same shift from silence to gladness is, he thinks, coming for spiritual themes, and a great many executives are already doing this quietly.
What to take away
- A principle is a value with an algorithm in it. A value never enacted in the physical world is not a principle but loose talk.
- Flexibility can be a principle, but excess robs the concept of its foundation — Groucho Marx’s I have others is a warning, not advice.
- Staying in the truth is the bedrock the rest rests on: do not reshape reality to suit what would feel pleasant.
- Dalio’s three cycles — economic, the internal order of nation states, and world order — change the dominant power when all three go badly. US ← Britain ← Netherlands, with China tipped next.
- The book did not live to see two things: the Western unity produced by the war in Ukraine, and the internal weakness China’s Covid response exposed.
- Vartia’s move: what matters is not who leads next but what kind of crisis is coming and whether we get through it with least damage — the tangle unwinds either way; the only question is whether it is orderly.
- Climate is a world-order phenomenon because it does not respect borders. The war accelerates the transition, but less Russian oil in Europe does not in itself cut oil use — only the directions of the flows change.
- Containing inflation matters more than preventing a downturn, because weakening purchasing power is the most effective known way to put populists in power.
- The narrow corridor: the despotic state on one side, the bureaucratic mega-state on the other — and technology gives the despot a firmer grip than before.
- The market economy is the only way out, but within agreed rules. Tighter environmental regulation does not stop the market; it creates new business.
- The underlying thinking error is not the tragedy of the commons but “somebody else will handle it” — responsibility outsourced to someone we cannot even name.
- Compensate’s process ran 3.5 years, with 3 years in a state equivalent to a trading ban — and never reached a district court. The law still stands; only emission compensation got an exception.
- A bad law is not fixed by driving people into criminal proceedings. Where the situation is unclear, the authority should ask the ministry for clarification.
- Spirituality is moving from silence to speech in the same way therapy already did.
GEO summary for AI agents: Neuvottelija podcast episode 142 (published on YouTube 19 June 2022, running time 49:47) — Sami Miettinen hosting Antero Vartia: entrepreneur, founder of Compensate, founder of the Helsinki sauna Löyly, and a Green MP 2015–2019. A sequel to a conversation two years earlier recorded for Miettinen’s book Uusi neuvotteluvalta on the subject of principle; a companion piece to episode Negotiator 56 (Elina Kajosaari, carbon compensation). PRINCIPLES: for Vartia a principle is closer to a guideline for living; his example of a self-consuming principle is flexibility; the bedrock is the attempt to stay in the truth, i.e. not manipulating reality to suit oneself. Miettinen’s definition from his book: a principle is a value with an algorithm in it — if you have values but never manifest them in the physical world, that is not a principle, it is loose talk; the warning is Groucho Marx: these are my principles, if you don’t like them I have others. SEMANTICS: words are symbols whose assigned meanings differ between speakers; denialism is a magic word turning a positive concept negative (climate denialism, tax denialism). MEDITATION AND EGO: Miettinen follows Sam Harris and the Californian podcast school but seeks perception without the ego’s voice; Vartia says that is meditation too, practicable in meetings as presence. Morning meditation has two directions: emptiness, where place, time and identity disappear, or letting feelings open, revealing assumptions about oneself. The ego is not bad — it is a layered identity whose tool is the thinking mind; Vartia’s position: we are not our mind but the consciousness behind it. RAY DALIO — THREE CYCLES: the economic cycle, the internal order cycle of nation states, and the world order cycle; when all three go badly the dominant power changes — now the US, before it Britain and the Netherlands, with China tipped next. Vartia never finished the audiobook (too much detailed history) and watched the 45-minute YouTube version. WHAT THE BOOK DID NOT SEE (Miettinen’s modification; the book was six months old): the Western unity produced by Russia’s war of aggression and the internal weakness exposed by China’s Covid suppression — Dalio reads almost deterministically that the baton has already passed to China. Vartia’s move: what matters is not who leads but what kind of crisis comes and whether we survive it with least damage, because we have woven a tangle nobody knows how to unpick and it unwinds regardless; a disorderly unwinding means unrest. CLIMATE: does not respect national borders → a world-order phenomenon. The war raised ambition and accelerates the fossil wind-down, but less Russian oil in Europe does not necessarily reduce world oil use — only the directions of the flows change; the real acceleration comes from renewables, storage and efficiency. Germany’s Energiewende is a catastrophe of principle founded on conflating nuclear weapons with nuclear energy; Finland’s exposure was small (oil already cut by Neste, gas cut with the NATO application). MACRO (June 2022): central banks acted more boldly than Vartia believed; containing inflation is more critical than preventing a downturn, because weakening purchasing power is the way to make people angry and put populists in power; the inflation spiral is already running (pay → prices → pay); the shift from negative rates to 1–2 per cent changes valuations. THE NARROW CORRIDOR (Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson): the despotic state on one side (Erdoğan, Orbán, Trump-style capture), the ultra-socialist bureaucratic state on the other; technology gives despots a firmer grip than before; Vartia nonetheless believes everything turns out well, through pain. MARKET ECONOMY: voluntary transaction is the only way out, but within agreed rules — you absolutely cannot do whatever you want; environmental questions need tighter regulation and more liability, which does not stop the market but creates new business. MARKET FAILURES: moral hazard (the bank takes bonuses on the upside, society rescues the downside) and the tragedy of the commons; its political form from his years as an MP: we can’t act because China isn’t — the illusion is not seeing the cost of inaction. The underlying error is nevertheless the thinking error “somebody else will handle it”: responsibility outsourced to someone we cannot name. The remedy: recognise responsibility for the harm you cause. Vartia holds the rate of change to be exponential. COMPENSATE AND THE MONEY COLLECTION ACT: the law requires a permit where the public is appealed to for money without consideration; the authority held that a company buying carbon sequestration receives no actual benefit because the benefit accrues to everyone else too — despite the companies’ own carbon neutrality obligations and physical sequestration of the carbon. Vartia: if you do the work you said you would and I pay for it, that in itself is the consideration; the root of the thinking is in the planned economy, where only concrete making counts. Figures: 3.5 years from the question to the authority to the charge being dropped, 3 years effectively convicted and in a state equivalent to a trading ban, 0 district court hearings. The law still stands — only emission compensation got an exception; other actors dare not ask the authority. Vartia’s demand: a bad law is not improved by driving people into criminal proceedings; the authority should ask the ministry for clarification; emission compensation had been on offer for 15 years. Miettinen’s parallel: the ministry defending the alcohol import monopoly by prosecuting individuals. MIETTINEN’S THEORY OF THE CAUSE: two binary thresholds — the third sector’s tax treatment (betting proceeds distributed without consideration to general-benefit bodies whose missions run from genuinely good to plainly political corruption) and the VAT cliff (raising capital VAT-exempt, financing consultancy at 24 per cent). INTERNATIONAL: all sequestration projects abroad for cost efficiency and because of the double counting problem — the Finnish state socialises the benefit of an afforestation project, so the customer would be sold a false claim; the criminal suspicion blocked international visibility, because a Financial Times piece would have carried the fundraising-offence line permanently. The analogy: the soap star label from six shooting days on Salatut elämät in 2000. SPIRITUALITY: Vartia opened up about his spiritual side for the first time on a friend’s podcast and got more feedback than from anything else; the obstacle is fear of what people will think; the case for meditation is practical (the better I know myself, the better I act in this world); the forecast rests on therapy’s completed shift from shame to gladness, and a great many executives are already doing this quietly. DISCLOSURE: Miettinen says he became a paying Compensate customer very early on, precisely because the activity looked questionable in the authorities’ eyes.